Forex Market Trading Hours

The Forex market has a huge advantage over the other investment markets - it's open 24 hours a day, six days a week. Whereas the commodities and stock market operates five days a week (Monday through Friday) during normal business hours, the Forex market continues its activity around the clock. If you want to trade at 2:00 am EST Monday morning, feel free to place your trade. If you would like to invest at 9:00 pm Thursday night when you have the time to concentrate on the market, simply place your trade on one of the many online Forex trading systems. However, even though the market is considered a 24-hour market, it's important to know when the market is actually active and when is the best time to place a trade on the market.

Actual operating hours

Even though the Forex market is open 24 hours a day, each financial center (i.e. New York, London, Frankfort, Tokyo, and Australia) has its own operating hours, which are usually from 8:00 am - 4:00 pm, local time. That means if it's 8:00 am (Tokyo time) on Monday morning, the Tokyo market will be open for trading even though it's 10:00 pm EST, on Sunday night. You could therefore take advantage of trading on the Forex market late Sunday night from your New York apartment.

Overlapping of hours

With so many financial centers around the globe, you will have times when two or more markets overlap. For instance, the New York and London markets overlap from 8:00 am to 12:00 pm EST, while the London and Tokyo markets overlap from 3:00 am to 4:00 am EST. The Sydney and Tokyo markets also overlap from 7:00 pm - 2:00 am EST. These overlapping periods are the best time to trade since volume (liquidity) is at it's greatest.

Other good times to trade

Besides the overlapping periods, it's best to trade at the following times:

• During the middle of the week (shows most movement)
• During trading hours of the three largest markets - London, New York, and Tokyo.

Times to avoid

It's best to avoid the following times/days:

• Sundays (limited volume)
• Fridays (unpredictable)
• Holidays (limited volume)
• Release of economic reports (volatility)
• 4:00 pm - 6:00 pm EST (low market volume).

Protective Puts

Option overlays in the forex are a great way to control risk while taking advantage of the upside in trading. Options are a broad subject so I only intend on discussing one concept in this article and then will follow up with another article on a second overlay strategy. One of our trading systems at proftingWithForex.com uses option overlays, and you can follow along month by month to see how this strategy actually performs in real time. The two concepts I will talk about are very common and can be executed easily and without constant maintenance. Those are two things I like to look for in a system so I am not the one making all the mistakes for the first time and so I can have a life along with my forex trading. I will cover protective puts in this report and covered calls next.

PROTECTIVE PUTS

A put is an option with three components. The first is a contract. When you buy a put, you are buying the right to sell someone the underlying currency at a predetermined price for a predetermined period of time. You could buy a put today to sell a lot of the GBP/USD at $2.0000 any time between now and a date you choose in the future. If the currency pair falls to 1.9900, you can still sell it for 2.0000 and realize a profit. In fact, it doesn't matter how far the currency falls. If it is still within your time window, you can sell the currency for 2.0000 at will. The set price (2.0000) that you have selected for your contract is known as the strike price. The second component is time. Options are available in monthly increments. That means you can buy one that is good until next month or 12 months from now. The choice is up to you. Finally, options cost money. The price of an option is called the premium. The premium is higher the more valuable the options is. An option with a long time frame and a great strike price is more expensive than one with a very short time frame and a more speculative strike price. I think the best way to explain this is to use an example.

Example 1:

Let's assume that on January 22, 2007, you wanted to buy one contract of the GBP/USD. Let's assume it had a price of 1.9750. You are a prudent investor, and you want some protection from risk in the market so you buy a protective put that allows you to sell this contract at 1.9750 anytime before that contract expires. In this case, the contract would have expired a month later on the third Friday of February, the 16 th . That put will cost you the equivalent of 150 pips per contract. The pair subsequently dropped to 1.9502. In that case, the put will still be worth 248 pips because you can still sell the lot for 1.9750 (1.9750 — 1.9502 = 0.0248). That is exactly equal to the amount you would have lost on the contract you were long so they wash each other out. In fact, the only thing you are out is the 150 pips you paid to purchase the contract in the first place. You didn't have to set a stop because you were totally protected. Even though the contract value dropped significantly-more than the 150 pips you had planned for-you had a hedge that protected your capital.

Example 2:

The following month's trade, February to March, would have been another loss, but the March to April trade was a winner. For the March to April trade, you could have purchased the long position in the currency pair for 1.9372. You could have covered your position with a put at 1.9350 that would have cost you 120 pips, leaving you with some exposure between 1.9350 and 1.9372. However if you add those two positions, you had a level of total risk similar to what you had during the January to February trade. During the month, your long position rose significantly to 2.0027. That means you made 655 pips. What about your put? Well, there is no way you will want to sell this position for 1.9350 so you will just let the put expire worthless. That will reduce your gains by the amount you paid for the put so your new total is a net gain of 535 pips.

This strategy can appear to be slightly complicated at first, but it is worth learning more about it as it offers significant benefits. Institutional traders use option overlays, such as protective puts, all the time. It helps control risk and reduces total volatility in a portfolio. Here are a few more of the benefits, along with two of the cons, of this strategy.

Benefit #1-No stops

You do not need to set a stop on your long currency position. How many times have you been right in your direction but got stopped out on a whipsaw in the market? I am positive that this happens to most forex traders on a regular basis. With a protective put, you are in charge and can let the exchange rate drop to zero, if that were possible, without exceeding your maximum loss. By the way, this benefit is also true during announcements. You are now in control.

Benefit #2-Unlimited upside

Unlike many hedging strategies, this technique still allows for unlimited upside. Although gains are offset by the price of the put, gains can still be significant.

Benefit #3-Lower portfolio volatility

The total portfolio has lower volatility because your downside is capped. Here is an additional example. I will assume that pricing and volatility has been reasonably constant, on average, during the last 10 years and that your strategy is to buy a long position on the GBP/USD and an at the money put with total portfolio leverage of 20:1. That would have returned 10 percent per year during that period. When you combine this advantage with some prudent analysis, it is entirely possible to see much better returns than this.

Con #1 — Cost of the put

The put will cost you 150 pips if you let it run until expiration each month-whether the market goes up or down. That price eats into your upside and creates a predetermined downside. Even if the market dropped less than 150 pips, the maximum loss will be the same.

Con #2 — Cost of trading

If you purchase a put, you will pay a commission. With commission prices falling all the time, this is usually nominal but it adds another pip worth of losses to each month's trading.

Energy Prices, Inflation and Forex

Oil futures surged to a record intraday high of $70.85 on August 30th, the day after Hurricane Katrina made landfall on the Gulf Coast. While prices have moderated in subsequent weeks, it's worth examining how higher commodity prices and the specter of inflation impacts the foreign exchange (FX) market, particularly the U.S. dollar.

Traditional supply and demand factors certainly have contributed to the longer term trend in energy prices. The demand side of the equation has been getting plenty of press this year, with focus on the rapidly growing thirst for oil in both China and India. However, the recent spike in oil can primarily be attributed to hurricane related speculation in the futures market and the limited and centralized (on the Gulf Coast) refining capacity of the U.S.

Economic data released in recent weeks has begun to reflect the effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which ravaged the U.S. Gulf Coast in August and September. These data reinforce what the Fed has been implying all along; that the economy is growing at a brisk pace and that inflation, not recession, should be the concern.

September jobs data showed the first net job losses since May of 2003, but the decline of 35,000 jobs was much smaller than the decline that was anticipated. September CPI showed the largest monthly gain in 25 years. However, when the volatile food and energy components are removed, inflation was a rather mild 0.1%. That was quite a bit less than the market was anticipating and suggests that the higher energy prices are not being passed through to the core number yet.

Similarly, the September PPI headline number exceeded expectation and was the largest monthly gain in 15 years. However, again we remove food and energy and see that wholesale prices were up a relatively restrained 0.3%. This core number did beat expectations though, so one might deduce that higher energy prices are starting to impact prices at the wholesale level and it's just a matter of time before these higher prices are passed along to consumers. Weaker than expected retail sales and a new 13 year low in Consumer Sentiment suggests that higher energy prices are indeed weighing on the American consumer's mind. How that will play out, particularly in the retail sector going into the holiday season is now a major focus on Wall Street.

With the word 'inflation' seemingly on everyone's lips these days, we expect the Fed to continue on its tightening schedule. The Fed raised the target for overnight borrowing in September by 25bp to 3.75%, the 11th such hike since June of 2004. Another rate hike is expected in October and at least one additional 25bp bump is all but assured in November or December.

Rising U.S. interest rates and an expanding U.S. economy have been the driving forces behind overseas flows into U.S treasuries and the stock market respectively. These flows translate into demand for the U.S. dollar, which has kept the greenback generally well bid in September and October. While we would contend that the equities market is vulnerable at this stage, the interest rate differential picture should continue to favor the dollar through year end.

High energy prices and inflation fears are not exclusive to the U.S. Central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations are meeting in Beijing this month. A statement released on October 16th said, high oil prices "could increase inflationary pressures, slow down growth and cause instability in the global economy.'' This should benefit the dollar as well because in times of global economic uncertainty, the dollar is still considered a "safe haven" currency. While we may see other countries begin to tighten their monetary policies, U.S. interest rates will remain significantly higher.

The definitive move above USD-JPY 115.00 bodes well for additional dollar gains against the yen into the 118/120 zone. On the other hand, the July lows in EURUSD at 1.1868 must be convincingly negated to trigger further dollar gains against the European currency. Such a move would shift focus to the 2004 lows at 1.1759/78 initially, but potential would be for a drop below 1.1500.

In times of inflationary pressures, the U.S. dollar tends to lose ground against the commodity currencies. Commodity currencies are the currencies of countries that derive the bulk of their export revenues from the sale of commodities. Prime examples of liquid commodity currencies are the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.

The dollar hit a new 17 year low late in September against the Canadian dollar on the back of sharply higher oil and metals prices. While the dollar recovered from those lows, gains are considered corrective in nature and we look for the longer-term downtrend in USD-CAD to continue. Similarly, AUS-USD and NZD-USD are consolidating below important resistances with scope seen for additional short to medium term gains.

At some point, domestic inflation and the rise in the U.S. dollar will return focus to the U.S. trade deficit and balance of payments. As U.S. goods and services become more expensive, both domestic and overseas consumers will look elsewhere. That's the point where the U.S. stock market truly becomes vulnerable. Downside risk in the stock market will result in a negative impact on flows into the U.S. and consequently the long-term downtrend in the dollar would likely start to re-exert itself.

Conventional wisdom in the financial services industry suggests that placing 5-10% of one's portfolio in alternative investments, such as those offered by CFS Capital, is desirable to achieve the diversification necessary to protect against adverse moves in the more traditional asset classes.

Forex Software Packages

If you plan to start trading FOREX online you will of course be using a software system. This system will make it easy for you to get information quickly about market prices and make trades. There are two types of FOREX software available, client based and web based.

As the FOREX market is a fast moving market and you will need up to the minute information to make informed transactions, it is up to you to see you have a high speed internet connection. Dial up internet access will absolutely not work for this. Another consideration could be the location of the servers used by your broker. If your broker's servers are located quite a distance from you, say in another country, this could potentially slow down your transmissions. If you plan to trade online you will need a modern computer and high speed internet connection.

The next consideration would be which type of software, client based or web based? Web based software is housed on your brokers website. You will not have to install any software on your own computer. A web based software program will allow you to log in from any computer that has an internet connection. A client based software program, or one that you download into your own computer will limit you to transactions only on the computer it is downloaded on. Web based software programs are preferred by most brokers who think they are more safe and reliable. Web based software tends to be less vulnerable to attack from viruses and hackers during transmissions than client based software.

Any FOREX software should offer you real-time quotes and offer means to quickly enter and exit the market. These are minimal requirements of any trading software. Upgraded software packages are usually offered at an extra monthly fee by brokers.

Generally brokers will have client information housed on two severs kept in two different locations. This is to guarantee client data is kept as safe as possible. If there is a power failure or a problem with one server the data is sent back and forth from the second secure server and you will not notice an interruption. Regular back ups of these servers is another way that brokers keep financial data safe in case of server failure.